India’s coastal waters are home to five species of turtles, of which the olive ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea) serves as the major nesting species of immense global significance. The species encounters numerous natural and anthropogenic threats during its life history, due to which it is accorded legal protection by both national and international parties. Many threat mitigation strategies in India focus on protecting the eggs/hatchlings in protected spaces called hatcheries. However, not all hatcheries adhere to best practices, thereby, making their hatchling production numbers comparable to leaving the nests undisturbed. This study will use stage-based population modelling to examine the implications of low hatchling numbers for local turtle populations in India and predict target hatchling production rates for population resilience and growth.

An extensive review of the literature summarises the previously utilised modelling techniques and objectives, and justifies the use of stage-based modelling as the most appropriate tool to answer this study’s research objective. A variation of matrix models proposed by Crouse et al. (1987) and Caswell (1989) will be used for the study, and the necessary modelling parameters (survivorship rates, fecundity, stage durations) will be obtained or inferred from the pre-existing literature. Elasticity analyses conducted on these parameters can help determine the impacts of low hatchling production on later life stages, as well as the relative importance of each parameter for population resilience. Currently, data extraction and processing are underway. A significant challenge has been the limited availability of life history data for olive ridley turtles, due to which some data will have to be extrapolated from other species, primarily the Kemp’s ridley turtle (Lepidochelys kempii) from the same genus.

Finally, an analysis of the model’s results will allow an understanding of population trends, establish target hatchling production for Indian hatcheries, and compare the effects of the conservation of eggs/hatchlings with that of other life stages. In terms of their relevance to conservation, these conclusions can be used to set hatchling production targets for hatcheries and possibly lead to a recommendation for a combined conservation focus on multiple sea turtle life stages.